Good Time to Buy? Why you Really Do Not Know!
I do not mean to be arrogant or rude, I just mean to be Correct.
“Now Is a Good Time to Buy” — Really?
Every marketing call. Every client meeting. Some realtor is parroting it:
👉 “Now is a good time to buy.”
It’s become the real estate version of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” Empty words. Salesmanship disguised as advice.
Here’s the truth: sometimes it’s a good time to buy. Sometimes it’s not. And sometimes, it depends who you are and what you’re trying to achieve.
The difference? Data.
I do not mean to be arrogant or rude — I just mean to be correct.
The Salesperson’s Game vs. The Professional’s Work
Most agents need a paycheck. They must believe (and sell) that every day is the right day, because if deals don’t happen, the lights don’t stay on.
Pros don’t operate like that. A pro knows they can pay the light bill without forcing a client into a bad deal. They’d rather work within the market we actually have than pretend we live in some fantasy version of it.
That’s the difference between talking points and truth.
Watercolor Pricing — Reality Check
Take Watercolor. One of the most coveted neighborhoods along 30A. A place where demand should be bulletproof.
But the numbers don’t lie:
Prices aren’t climbing in a straight line. They’re flattening in key segments.
Inventory is stacking. Buyers have more choice than they did in 2021 or 2022.
The spread between list price and sale price has been widening.
A recent view of the trailing year of closed sales examined in a specific and consistent way shows the median and average pricing below.
What Buyers and Sellers Need to Hear
For buyers: Don’t swallow the “now is the time” line. Swallow the data. If a home is overpriced, patience is more powerful than urgency. If a market is flat, patience is your winning card.
For sellers: Don’t think pricing high guarantees safety because “the market is good”. If a realtor is saying “now is a good time to buy” they must acknowledge the hidden statement they are making to sellers. “Now is not a good time to sell!”
Be careful that you work with people that you click with…that represent your core values and your approach
For agents: Your job isn’t to keep a transaction machine humming. It’s to advise. To know when the market says yes, when it says no, and when it says not yet. After all, even Larry Kendall and the Group put a halt to sales activity when the bubble was getting to large for the numbers to make sense. See the Ninja Selling Book or call me to ask.
Watercolor Pricing — Where is the puck Going?
Take Watercolor. If you say it is a good time to buy, what is your planning horizon? What is the essence of the advise? If you are saying it is a good time to buy for family memories that is always true.
If you are saying it is a good time to buy because 10 years from now prices are likely to be higher, that is likely true…prices will be higher too — but so will bread.
Inflation adjusted pricing is all that matters. But if you are trying to be encouraging, as many are in the zeal to make a sale, that pricing is rising now, check your enthusiasm at the door and look at the data.
But the numbers don’t lie:
Prices aren’t climbing in Watercolor. With possible wiggles and gyrations because of the timing of the current market sales, pricing is flat. Good News if it continues to hold.
Inventory is still high.
The spread between list price and sale price remains clear so we can project the forward market.
The data below is trailing closed sales and the closings of the current active market in a “randomized” order of possible closings over the current absorption rate in Watercolor. The data is clear. FLAT. Is that good? Is that bad? It depends.
Optimism says: “Flat Pricing indicates emerging stability” I would tend to concur with this thought.
Reality says: “It’s a good time to buy at the right price, in the right pocket, with the right horizon.” Always true, but there is no compelling reason that today is a better day to buy than tomorrow. To create a sale for a listing client requires the home to be compelling. This remains the trend that, with the occasional spikes in volume in any given month, leads me to believe that we are going to continue to hover at reasonable unit volume over the course of large sample sizes of data. Simply? Volume of sales is stable now. From a long period of instability to the downside, sellers can take some comfort that volume is stable now and reliable. Good News for Good Homes.
Economics can sometimes get behind by a touchdown or two, but it always wins. The current market shows economics is behind blind optimism by about a field goal, so I expect the remainder of the year to remain….as is….good, having witnessed a real decline in pricing in Watercolor since October of 2022, but stabilizing at current levels which does indeed suggest it is an OK time to buy. The road is not clear yet, but the road is coming into view.
What remains the case is that extraordinary homes will continue to lead, and the market is becoming less and less forgiving of homes that miss the mark…..even by a very small measure. The market is local….And the most local market is a fine home without any objection.
Closing Thought
The most professional thing an agent can do is tell a client not to transact when the deal doesn’t work. That takes confidence, not desperation. For sellers it means some homes need to remain rentals and even some homes can become long term rentals. The risk of economic shock and meaningful additional downside pressure may be….MAY be beginning to show signs of abating with stable volume the leading indicator of coming price stability.
A “where has the puck been mantra” and a pure guess of where it is going is not leadership.
Our team has improved its own communication to not be “vague” as to what we believe. Clients deserve to make choices of who to work with because of vibe and what they believe about it. What we believe and know is that our historical data of commentary in numbers is running about 95% correct. We are ok if it means some might want to go with a different form of optimism vs our form of focused effort knowing the economics and how our marketing must reflect reality.
Why not trust people that are skilled and actually know how to evaluate the economics of a market? Emotional guesses are, over time rarely more than 50 percent correct. Is it a good time to buy in Watercolor? Yes of course it is if that is what you want to do and know the market. But what does the data say? It says, “maybe” and we will know soon.
So next time you hear “Now is a good time to buy,” ask: Good for who?
Because in WaterColor, in this market, the only right answer is: good if the home, feeling, family, price and the plan are right. For now. Pricing is reading as stable but not just yet ready to begin its true historical pricing gains closely aligned to core inflation.